According to the latest industry data, from January to July, China added 13.5 GW of new photovoltaic capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 57%. It is expected that an additional 4-5 GW will be installed in August and September. This year, the National Energy Administration issued bidding targets for 2019 projects, providing guidance on both annual installation capacity and grid-connected targets: In 2019, nearly 50 GW of domestic projects are eligible for development, with an anticipated 40-45 GW being connected to the grid by year-end. As a result, domestic installations in the fourth quarter are projected to reach 21.5–27.5 GW, representing a significant month-over-month increase. Meanwhile, according to the National Energy Administration’s recent release on household PV grid connections for July, as of the end of July, the total capacity included under the 2019 subsidy program for residential PV systems stood at 2.6972 million kilowatts. Of this, 483,900 kilowatts were newly added in July, leaving just 802,800 kilowatts remaining in the program. Given this rapid depletion of available quotas, the second half of the year is poised to see an accelerated rush of installations.

Meanwhile, as Europe's summer holidays come to a close, overseas demand is set to pick up in September as well. Meanwhile, the recovery in auxiliary material utilization rates further confirms that the industry has reached an inflection point in terms of demand. In August, Foster shipped 69 million square meters of encapsulant film, a 10-million-square-meter increase from July. Meanwhile, Xinyi Solar also reported that its glass inventory is virtually depleted.

Huachuang Securities noted that, in terms of battery prices, segments such as monocrystalline materials, monocrystalline silicon wafers, and glass continue to experience tight supply and demand. Currently, PERC cell prices have fallen below the cash cost level of older PERC production lines, signaling that prices are poised to stabilize and rebound. As both domestic and international demand surge in the fourth quarter, the entire photovoltaic industry chain is expected to see simultaneous growth in both volume and pricing. Key players like Longi Green Energy Technology and Zhonghuan Semiconductor—leading dual寡opolies in monocrystalline silicon wafers—and Tongwei Co., Ltd., a major player in battery cells and silicon material; along with industry leader Sungrow Power Supply for PV inverters, module manufacturer Dongfang Risesun, and market leader Foster for PV encapsulant films, are likely to benefit significantly from this favorable market dynamic.